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#1 Election Issue - Economy. Still Great, Media Lies, GOP In Trouble

If you've actually been paying attention to the U.S. economy under the Bush administration, you're aware that it's been nothing short of great for most of the Bush administrations time in office, since troubles from the Clinton-Gore recession and 9/11. While all sectors of real estate were hitting record levels month after month for years under Bush, the necessary slow-down has begun and the media has been rushing to spell doom for the economy through alarmist headlines, and spun articles. They were even doing this during continual record growth over the past two and three years, insisting a "crash" was imminent, but as predicted by any realisting non-BDS suffering economist, we're experiencing a necessary and healthy slowdown, particularly as the fed raises interest rates to slow inflation.

But the housing sector doesn't even scratch the surface of the media lies that are leaving most people giving negative numbers on the economy, while giving positive numbers to their own situation. I love these numbers because they prove that people are being lied to or they wouldn't think that their own positive situation was a fluke, while knocking the economy as a whole. The major problem with all of this, is that a recent Fox News poll shows that the economy is the number 1 issue on voters' minds as the midterm elections approach. Let's take a closer look at the numbers and the lies.

The jobs numbers are out today, showing that another 128,000 jobs were created last month, which brings us to more than 5.5 million jobs created in the last 3 years! This also brought the unemployment rate back down to 4.7%, from the slight increase to 4.8% in the previous month. Even if the number had stayed at 4.8, it would have still been great and lower than the average of the 70s, 80s and 90s! Better still, wages grew faster than inflation.

I do have to say that this is probably the most fair AP story I've read on the economy in recent months, though you can still sense that they're looking for something negative to print, just not as hard as usual:

The tally of new jobs last month was slightly stronger than the 125,000 that economists were forecasting. The nation's unemployment rate dropped down a notch from a five-month high of 4.8 percent in July. Job gains for June and July also turned out to be better than previously estimated. In June, employers boosted payrolls by 134,000 positions and in July they added another 121,000.

See, what is the point of that "five-month high" line? An average reader sees "unemployment was at a high", they don't know that 4.8 is still a historically low unemployment rate and barely up from the previous months which obvioiusly were also historically low, especially in an economy after the recession, 9/11, expensive wars, the New Orleans situation (that I refuse to call "Katrina"). This leaves the impression that the drop to 4.7 was some sort of fluke, when in fact it's part of the low unemployment trend. But as I said, this AP article was much more fair than most, and this is a minor offense. I do have to give them credit for including this:

Workers' average hourly earnings edged up to $16.79 in August, a 0.1 percent increase from July. Economists were forecasting a bigger, 0.3 percent advance. While workers welcome strong wage growth, economists worry that a rapid and prolonged pickup in wages can ignite inflation fears.

Over the 12 months ending August, wages grew by a strong 3.9 percent. The last time this figure was higher was in June 2001.

Oddly "Consumer Confidence" dropped, but "Consumer Spending" rose. I'm not an economist, but those two numbers would seem to contradict eachother. More importantly, I've isolated a flat out AFP lie in the short article on consumer spending growth. The whole article follows:

WASHINGTON (AFP) - US consumer spending has rallied strongly in July but incomes fell, according to the government.

The Commerce Department reported Thursday that personal spending rose 0.8 percent last month, after going up 0.4 percent in June. It was the fastest pace of spending since January.

Personal incomes rose 0.5 percent, a slower pace than June's increase of 0.6 percent.

Both releases were in line with Wall Street forecasts.

I hope I don't need to spell that out for you, but on the assumption a liberal might be reading this... The very first sentence says that income FELL. But by the time you get to the third paragraph you learn that it simply GREW at a slightly slower rate, but didn't fall by any means. This is one of those situations where you libs can't spin this. That first line is a lie any way you slice it.

Still with me? I'm just laying the groundwork, because the poll responses are when the issue will really sink in, so hang in there. So far we know GDP and job growth continue to be strong, the unemployment rate remains historically low, wages are increasing, etc. etc. But as you're about to see, the public continues to be very down on the economy. Of course the liberal response is "the growth only helps the rich, and the economy is bad for the average person". Well, as I've done for months (see here, here, and here), I'm about to do a preemptive strike on those sort of responses, because the fact is that most people ARE happy with their own financial situation. (All numbers that follow via American Research Group, Inc.)

First I always like to start with the biggest proof that the public is being lied to about the economy: the recession question. Consistently only about half of the country knows that we are NOT in a recession, the other half either believes that we are or is undecided. For starters there shouldn't be "undecided" because recession is an absolute, either we are or we aren't, it's not an opinion.. And the fact is WE AREN'T. Here are the numbers:

How can only half of the country not know that we aren't in a recession? The only logical conclusion is that they are getting bad information, and where do they get their information? The news media! How can 28% be so stupid to think that we are in recession, and another 22% be unsure about something that isn't an opinion question!? How!?

Before I get to the public's view of their own financial situation, here's their opinion of the economy:

Ouch! 55% see the economy either bad, very bad, or terrible, while only 44% see it as good, very good, or excellent. As bad as that is, it's actually a sharp jump from July's numbers where 68% rated the economy in the negative columns, and only 31% positively, but it still doesn't jibe with the personal situation numbers:

Whoa! 68% of the public is happy with their own financial situation, while only 31% aren't!!! Again, how do you explain this discrepency, without concluding that the public has been lied to, leaving them with the impression that they are the lucky flukes in an economy in the crapper. It probably doesn't help that virtually everytime positive economic numbers are reported, it's always with words like "unexpected" or "surprising", again leaving people with the impression the growth is out of the ordinary, while the numbers show the economy has been booming, and only in recent months has it even begun the necessary slow down to maintanable levels that won't cause inflation to go out of control.

Like with all lying liberal media issues, the big problem is that their lies (obviously) affect public opinion, and public opinion dictates how the public votes. We've got an extremely important election coming up in which the public puts the economy above terror and Iraq on their "what is important to me" scale, an economy they have a negative opinion about, because they were lied to. This of course carries across all things from national security to wars to immigration, but this is the easiest example to lay out with irrefutable facts. Please, tell your liberal friends that any financial upturn they've had isn't luck and they aren't in the minority. Or you could just wait for speaker Pelosi to come in and waste our time and money with a series of pointless investigations.

Oh, and suck on this White House summary:

On August 4, 2006, The Government Released New Jobs Figures – 113,000 Jobs Created In July. The economy has created more than 1.7 million jobs over the past 12 months – and more than 5.5 million jobs since August 2003. The unemployment rate is 4.8 percent – below the average of each of the past three decades. In addition, wages grew 0.4 percent in July, the second consecutive month of strong wage growth and faster than inflation.

The Economy Remains Strong, And The Outlook Is Favorable

  • Employment Increased In 47 States Over The Past 12 Months Ending In June.
  • Real GDP Grew A Strong 3.5 Percent Over The Past 4 Quarters.
  • Productivity Has Grown At A Strong 3.5 Percent Annual Rate Since The First Quarter Of 2001. Productivity growth during the past five years has been at the fastest rate in nearly four decades.
  • Real After-Tax Income Has Risen By 13.5 Percent Since January 2001.
  • Industrial Production Increased 4.5 Percent Over The Past 12 Months.
  • Manufacturing Production Has Risen 5.7 Percent Over The Past 12 Months. Manufacturing productivity has grown 4 percent over the past four quarters, faster than the 3.7 percent average growth in the 1990s.
  • Strong Growth Is Helping Raise More Tax Revenues For The Federal And State Governments. In 2005, Federal tax revenues grew by $274 billion, the largest increase in 24 years, and State tax revenues are up substantially in 2006.

 

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Comments

Blah Blah Blah.

Eccoomy is headed for recession. Duh.

You don't spend 30 billion (borrowed money) a month on Iraq, gear up for a few other new wars (borrowed money), give tax breaks to your buddies (borrow more to make up for that), and then expect the economy to do anything BUT crash. We've been here before.

So who cares about all the lies the 'experts' tell when the president lies every time he opens his mouth?

Economy headed for a recession? Cite some facts to support that. In fact, cite a single fact to support a single claim you made. You really need to step out of your deranged Bush hating realm and in to reality before you comment psycho. Like I told you in the other post, seriously reread my posts and your comments in response to them because there is no explanation for what you say outside of you being mentally disturbed. Seriously, I'm not just insulting, you're insane. Well, I suppose drugs could be to blame, but I don't want to be presumptious and say you use drugs, so I'm going with insane.

You realize that the deficit, as a percentage of the economy, is pretty normal? You realize that you have nothing to support the "headed for recession" crap? Yeah, 5 years of records all over the housing sector, and then a slight slowdown and the world is coming to an end... despite constant great GDP numbers, unemployment, and job creation numbers, etc. etc. etc. All in the face of $3 gas, expensive wars, hurricanes, 9/11, the Clinton/Gore recession. Yeah, damn those evil tax cuts for the rich huh. Damn the 5.5 million jobs they've created and the always "surprisingly" strong economy it created.

Again, like I said in response to your other comments. Think before you comment here, this ain't KOS. I think you need some help Barney, and the first step is identifying your problem, and only you can do that.

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